MARKET FORECASTS

Technology innovations, disruptive business models or changing customer needs lead to dynamic market developments. Companies that already deal with future developments in their markets and possible market scenarios today can adapt to them at an early stage and thus improve their competitive situation for the future.

How are the markets, in which my company is currently active, developing? Which changes will have an impact on my business model in the future?

Our answer

Many medium-term future developments can be derived from the current market situation and existing trends. The detailed analysis of the historical and current development of changes in drivers and framework conditions and the view of developments in trend-leading markets already allows conclusions to be drawn today about probable future market conditions. Alternatively, it can show the option space for the future market situation as a basis for strategic decisions.
Our team of analysts evaluates key factors influencing market development and operationalizes them. In doing so, we draw on the comprehensive database of the Statista platform and other sources to identify potential drivers and examine their influence on market development. Our driver database comprises several hundred drivers for almost all countries in the world with historical, current and forecast data, e.g. from official statistics on socio-economic framework data or on production, trade and consumption. These drivers are suitable for mapping industrial and consumer trends, socio-cultural trends and megatrends.

  • Market definition and forecast period tailored exactly to your needs
  • Full transparency about calculation logic, assumptions and drivers used
  • Individual modification of drivers is possible within the framework of customizable models
  • Mapping of different scenarios and calculation of probabilities is possible, e.g. with Monte Carlo simulations

Trend models that depict linear, exponential or logarithmic trends or multiple regression models based on the forecast development of the drivers used are suitable for calculating future market developments. In addition, existing secondary studies, findings from consumer surveys or expert assessments can be used to calibrate forecast models.
Our models combine these approaches and use findings from innovation research, for example, by mapping the enforcement of innovations in the form of S-curves. On this basis, we develop well-founded forecasts and scenarios as a basis for long-term planning and strategic decisions. We ensure that the calculation logic and assumptions made are transparent to our clients. Upon request, we also develop customizable models that, for example, map predefined scenarios or enable the individual modification of drivers.

Your benefits
  • Well-founded forecasts and scenarios as a basis for strategic decisions
  • Early consideration of opportunities and risks arising from future developments
  • Raising awareness of one's own organization and ensuring continued competitiveness
Our methodology

Market and driver analysis

The first step is intensive research into the status quo and historical developments in the market under consideration as well as the underlying drivers. The definition of the market to be forecast and the desired level of detail of the analysis, e.g. with specific market segments or customer groups, is carried out precisely according to your needs. To identify drivers, we draw on a driver database that includes several hundred drivers for almost all countries in the world with historical, current and forecast data and add further drivers as required.

Marktprognosen sind essentiell für Steuerung und Planung in Unternehmen
Marktprognosen sind essentiell für Steuerung und Planung in Unternehmen

Market and driver analysis

The first step is intensive research into the status quo and historical developments in the market under consideration as well as the underlying drivers. The definition of the market to be forecast and the desired level of detail of the analysis, e.g. with specific market segments or customer groups, is carried out precisely according to your needs. To identify drivers, we draw on a driver database that includes several hundred drivers for almost all countries in the world with historical, current and forecast data and add further drivers as required.

Development of forecast model

When developing a specific forecast model, we use trend models that depict linear, exponential or logarithmic trends or regression models that forecast future market development on the basis of the identified drivers. We usually map innovative or disruptive elements with an impact on the market using S-curves. In addition to pure mathematical mapping, we calibrate and validate our market models based on existing secondary studies, expert assessments or the market expertise of our analysts. As a client, we provide you with full transparency regarding the calculation logic, assumptions and drivers used.

Processing of results​

We deliver the forecast model as an Excel file or, on request, as a web-based dashboard. In addition to the mapping of a forecast, the mapping of several scenarios is also possible. We are also happy to provide you with a customizable model in which you can map the market development based on predefined scenarios for the development of the underlying drivers or modify the input factors individually. Another module we are happy to offer you is the calculation of probabilities for certain developments, e.g. with Monte Carlo simulations.

Processing of results​

We deliver the forecast model as an Excel file or, on request, as a web-based dashboard. In addition to the mapping of a forecast, the mapping of several scenarios is also possible. We are also happy to provide you with a customizable model in which you can map the market development based on predefined scenarios for the development of the underlying drivers or modify the input factors individually. Another module we are happy to offer you is the calculation of probabilities for certain developments, e.g. with Monte Carlo simulations.

Examples from previous projects