Forecast model for the long-term development of the European passenger car fleet

New forms of propulsion are transforming the European passenger car market. Along with this development, the demand for energy and raw materials is also changing. In order to be able to respond to the future developments of the market and changing needs, a globally operating energy company requires a market forecast model for the European passenger car fleets.

How will the European car fleet develop in the coming decades?

Our Solution

To answer this question, Statista has developed a market forecast model for determining the future stock and new registrations within the European passenger car market, broken down by type of drive and vehicle segment. The model is based on existing stock and new registration data. In addition, current studies and reports were analyzed to take into account the latest developments and to deduce the main drivers. The next step involved identifying and defining possible scenarios to reflect different realities. Finally, statistical calculation methods were used to forecast the scenario-based developments of the vehicle fleets in each European country. The forecast model was created using an open architecture in order to be able to adapt input data at any time.

  • Secondary data research on stocks, new registrations, scrapping, etc.
  • Driver analysis and definition of development scenarios
  • Statistical forecast model
Customer Results

Developing a scenario-based and dynamic market model that could be adapted by the client at any time constituted the core of the project. With this model, the client can calculate the stock as well as selected KPIs, such as mileage, fuel consumption, and emissions, on a sub-segment level up to 2037, based on selected, predefined development scenarios. In addition to the market model, the client was provided with documentation of all sources and assumptions used. The market model forecasts that passenger car fleets will shift from conventionally powered vehicles towards electric cars.

  • Conventional passenger cars are increasingly being displaced by electric passenger cars
  • Scenario-based, dynamic, and adaptable market model