Determination of the global market potential for a rapid Covid-19 test

An internationally active manufacturer of medical equipment planned to develop a rapid Covid-19 test, in order to combat the pandemic in the spring of 2020. At that time, the course of the pandemic was not yet foreseeable and the company was faced with the uncertainty of estimating the market potential. Therefore, the company turned to Statista Q to provide an informed forecast of the market potential for rapid tests in selected countries.

What is the market potential for a Covid-19 rapid test device in selected countries?

Our Solution

The analysts at Statista Q developed a scenario-based forecasting model for the customer to calculate the market potential, which was based on the infection figures of the coronavirus. The scenarios simulated different courses of spread of the virus. In addition to already known Covid-19 spread patterns, the spread patterns of other diseases were also taken into account. In addition, test ratios were determined for the corresponding countries, in order to infer the number of tests already performed from the infection figures. This was necessary because, due to the early stage of the pandemic, the data situation was still very patchy in many countries. Finally, the expected tests performed were calculated for each country and scenario.

  • Scenario-based forecasting model
  • Drivers were infection numbers, the number of tests and the spread of other diseases
Customer Results

With the results of the project, the customer was able to assess the market potential for the Covid-19 rapid test and implement the test’s development. The device has since been in use in many places, providing people with reliable test results quickly and easily. The prediction model was provided to the customer completely and exclusively in Microsoft Excel format.

  • Insights into the market potential support the customer in successfully launching the Covid-19 rapid test on the market
  • Forecast model in Microsoft Excel